Christmas Box-Office Thread - A Disturbance In The Force

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AndyDursin
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Christmas Box-Office Thread - A Disturbance In The Force

#1 Post by AndyDursin »

Looks like JUMANJI may do well after all based on these estimates...
Sony’s Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle grossed $7.1 million in its Wednesday opening, taking second place behind Disney/Lucafilm’s Star Wars: The Last Jedi, which is looking at $17M. Industry projections remain bullish that the Jake Kasdan film will get into the $50M range by the end of Christmas Day. All studios have their eyes on Christmas Day, because it’s from that point that movie attendance explodes.

20th Century Fox/Chernin Entertainment’s The Greatest Showman filed third Wednesday with $2.4M, which will still get the period musical to the low-$20M range by the end of Christmas. Again, it’s a marathon, not a sprint for these movies as distribution executives assess their fortunes by MLK weekend. While critics have been cruel at 48% Rotten, the original musical starring Hugh Jackman, Michelle Williams, Zac Efron and Zendaya proved to be a real crowd-pleaser with the CinemaScore audience, who gave it a solid A. Ninety-eight percent of potential attendees in a Fandango poll are Jackman fans, and 81% are looking forward to seeing another original musical this season.

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AndyDursin
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Re: Christmas Box-Office Thread - Star Wars, Jumanji, A Musical Hugh Jackman

#2 Post by AndyDursin »

First weekend estimates, JEDI strong though running nearly 30% off THE FORCE AWAKENS, leaving enough room for JUMANJI and PITCH PERFECT's solid performances. Star Wars' weekend continues to be revised downwards:

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Re: Christmas Box-Office Thread - Star Wars, Jumanji, A Musical Hugh Jackman

#3 Post by AndyDursin »

They were hopeful LAST JEDI would hit $100 million for the 4-day -- it's not happening. New estimates continue to revise it downwards, with a near 70% drop from last weekend. Still lots of money -- but there's no mistaking how big a fall this is as word of mouth seems to be as toxic as we're discussing.

Even more, look at the domestic performance of this and THE FORCE AWAKENS through this precise point in time:
FORCE AWAKENS $571 million
LAST JEDI $397 million
Newly revised estimates:

1 1 Star Wars: The Last Jedi BV $68,486,000 -68.9% 4,232 - $16,183 $365,088,356 - 2
2 N Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle Sony $34,000,000 - 3,765 - $9,031 $50,605,967 $90 1
3 N Pitch Perfect 3 Uni. $20,451,000 - 3,447 - $5,933 $20,451,000 $45 1
4 N The Greatest Showman Fox $8,600,000 - 3,006 - $2,861 $13,198,731 $84 1
5 2 Ferdinand Fox $7,050,000 -47.4% 3,630 +9 $1,942 $26,532,884 $111 2
6 3 Coco BV $5,208,000 -47.7% 2,111 -1,044 $2,467 $161,327,128 - 5

7 N Downsizing Par. $4,600,000 - 2,668 - $1,724 $4,600,000 $68 1
8 16 Darkest Hour Focus $4,105,000 +384.4% 806 +722 $5,093 $6,957,077 - 5
9 N Father Figures WB $3,200,000 - 2,902 - $1,103 $3,200,000 - 1
10 12 The Shape of Water FoxS $3,050,000 +78.3% 726 +568 $4,201 $7,615,665 - 4

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Re: Christmas Box-Office Thread - A Disturbance In The Force

#4 Post by AndyDursin »

Bottom line on JEDI --
We’ll have finals later in the day, but according to industry estimates this morning, Disney/Lucasfilm’s Star Wars: The Last Jedi is coming in with much less cash than anticipated from what was projected yesterday. Granted, the entire weekend was a hard one for analysts to call with Christmas Eve on Sunday, but at $99M this morning Last Jedi only made $2.9M more than Rogue One did a year ago over the four-day Christmas holiday. Disney has been a digit up or down from industry estimates so it’s quite conceivable the four-day holiday for Last Jedi gets called at $100M. Yes, sequelitis is a factor here, but when a movie is posting between $17M-$25M+ days, it’s just a matter of when people want to see this movie at this time of the year. Moviegoers spent an estimated $27.5M to watch Last Jedi on Christmas, a figure that’s 44% less than Force Awakens’ $49.3M on the holiday (when it fell on a Thursday) and just 6% higher than a Rogue One‘s $25.9M Christmas (when it fell on a Sunday). Force Awakens ended its year at $651.9M, Rogue One accumulated $408M by Dec. 31 and the projection is that Last Jedi gets to at least $506M before 2018 rings in.
Conversely...
As the entire industry predicted, Sony’s Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle had a fantastic weekend earning $72M since Wednesday (that includes $2M in Amazon Prime previews). $55.4M of that was earned over the four-day holiday with the Jake Kasdan movie making $19M from 3,765 theaters alone.

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