Weekend Box Office 8/3: Projections

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AndyDursin
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Weekend Box Office 8/3: Projections

#1 Post by AndyDursin »

What's interesting to me is how well JOURNEY TO THE CENTER OF THE EARTH 3D has done. Opened very, very modestly but has hit $70 million and is still going. And the budget was modest -- only $60 million -- for a summer "effects movie" as it were.

VERY EARLY 3-DAY PROJECTIONS
EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS EARLY 3-DAY ESTIMATES
1. The Mummy: Tomb of the Dragon Emperor (Universal) - $43.5 million, $11,572 PTA, $43.5 million cume
2. The Dark Knight (Warner Bros.) — $41 million, $9,611 PTA, $392.08 million cume
3. Step Brothers (Sony) — $15.2 million, $4,913 PTA, $61.86 million cume
4. Mamma Mia (Universal) — $12.67 million, $4,142 PTA, $87.52 million
5. Journey to the Center of the Earth (Warner Bros.) — $6.83 million, $2,993 PTA, $73.1 million cume
6. Swing Vote (Disney) - $6.02 million, $2,720 PTA, $6.02 million cume
7. The X-Files: I Want To Believe (20th Century Fox) — $5.09 million, $1,600 PTA, $18.73 million cume
8. Hancock (Sony) — $4.8 million, $1,728 PTA, $215.6 million cume
9. WALL-E (Disney) — $4.19 million, $1,642 PTA, $203.66 million cume
10. Space Chimps (20th Century Fox) — $3.04 million, $1,198 PTA, $22.29 million

romanD
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#2 Post by romanD »

seems like this summer is overall very successful... even hancock did very well...

only losers are speed racer (big time) and hellboy 2 (i never thought the first one was succesfull enough to greenlight a sequel, and despite deltoro's now a critic's darling, his pan's labyrinth had by far not as big an audience as studios might think... I hardly know anyone who has seen it, so you can't hardly use that movie or the director as advertising in your trailers).

guess wanted did better than expected, hulk 2 did ok, but i guess not enough to keep the franchise going.

iron man and indy 4 did incredible (and undeservedly... both were just ok movies), so does Batman (seems to become the second most successful movie ever... but TITANIC doesnt need to be afraid, seems nothing will ever beat it).

mummy 3 will make its money i guess...

wasnt this the last blockbuster or is something else coming?

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AndyDursin
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#3 Post by AndyDursin »

only losers are speed racer (big time) and hellboy 2
I wouldn't say HELLBOY was a loser. The original only did $60 million and the budget on this movie was $80-$85 million or so. As it is they'll probably come close to the budget domestically (or at least get well over $70 million) and make a profit off the international and DVD revenues.

THE X-FILES was certainly a flop. It'll end up barely scraping $20 million if that, though they did keep the costs down (luckily for Fox). Either way, when you end up making -- in total -- less than what some analysts thought you'd do in the opening weekend, that's pathetic.

SPEED RACER, undoubtedly, was far and away THE biggest loser of the summer. A budget of $150 million or more, Warner ate it on that one.

Eric W.
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#4 Post by Eric W. »

AndyDursin wrote:
only losers are speed racer (big time) and hellboy 2
I wouldn't say HELLBOY was a loser. The original only did $60 million and the budget on this movie was $80-$85 million or so. As it is they'll probably come close to the budget domestically (or at least get well over $70 million) and make a profit off the international and DVD revenues.

THE X-FILES was certainly a flop. It'll end up barely scraping $20 million if that, though they did keep the costs down (luckily for Fox). Either way, when you end up making -- in total -- less than what some analysts thought you'd do in the opening weekend, that's pathetic.

SPEED RACER, undoubtedly, was far and away THE biggest loser of the summer. A budget of $150 million or more, Warner ate it on that one.
Out of all of these, Hellboy 2 is going to have a far and away the brightest future when it gets released on DVD and Blu-Ray around the world.

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#5 Post by AndyDursin »

Full weekend numbers.

As I wrote before, it's impressive how well JOURNEY 3D held up after making only $19 mil in its first weekend.

1 1 The Dark Knight WB $43,800,000 -41.7% 4,266 -100 $10,267 $394,887,000 $185 3
2 N The Mummy: Tomb of the Dragon Emperor Uni. $42,450,000 - 3,760 - $11,289 $42,450,000 $145 1
3 2 Step Brothers Sony $16,300,000 -47.3% 3,094 - $5,268 $62,966,000 $65 2
4 3 Mamma Mia! Uni. $13,121,000 -26.1% 3,062 +72 $4,285 $87,975,000 $52 3
5 5 Journey to the Center of the Earth WB $6,875,000 -29.2% 2,285 -403 $3,008 $73,140,000 $60 4
6 N Swing Vote BV $6,300,000 - 2,213 - $2,846 $6,300,000 $21 1
7 6 Hancock Sony $5,200,000 -37.4% 2,782 -527 $1,869 $215,995,000 $150 5
8 7 Wall-E BV $4,747,000 -26.1% 2,555 -489 $1,857 $204,222,000 $180 6
9 4 The X-Files: I Want to Believe Fox $3,425,000 -65.8% 3,185 - $1,075 $17,060,000 $30 2
10 9 Space Chimps Fox $2,840,000 -37.4% 2,134 -404 $1,330 $22,091,000 $37 3
11 8 Hellboy II: The Golden Army Uni. $2,527,000 -50.5% 1,956 -1,062 $1,291 $71,273,000 $85 4
12 10 Wanted Uni. $1,257,000 -54.1% 895 -855 $1,404 $131,338,000 $75 6

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#6 Post by AndyDursin »

THE MUMMY came in 2nd to DARK KNIGHT domestically but THE MUMMY had a massive in-take international. That film will end up being a big success because out of the U.S. it will do big numbers.

romanD
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#7 Post by romanD »

Mummy was quite a gamble for Universal. The 2nd was so many years ago, it could easily have been that no one was interested anymore and also no Rachel Weisz made it look even more uninteresting. They really should have killed her off or something and not just replace her. I like Maria Bello, but she is so different... really strange they chose her.

Still havent seen it, they got troubles releasing it in China (where I work right now for the Olympics...)

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#8 Post by AndyDursin »

romanD wrote:Mummy was quite a gamble for Universal. The 2nd was so many years ago, it could easily have been that no one was interested anymore and also no Rachel Weisz made it look even more uninteresting. They really should have killed her off or something and not just replace her. I like Maria Bello, but she is so different... really strange they chose her
If they didn't want to kill the character off they could have just as easily left her at home in the story and written her out after making a cameo appearance in the first 10 minutes. Bello tries hard (and the way she's introduced they even tip their hat to the fact that she's a "completely different character"), but she serves no function in the story at all. After "saying hello" to her they could've had Fraser go alone...

The movie isn't that much of a gamble really when you consider how well the first two movies did internationally. This time they focused on the Asian market with Jet Li and Michelle Yeoh, changed the setting (also to cross-promote the Olympics, which NBC Universal is not coincidentally broadcasting in the USA) and almost certainly they will make a profit with worldwide revenues.

Domestically I think the movie will probably struggle after this, but the reality is that they had to have known worldwide they'd turn a profit on this. It's just surprising why it took so long to make it.

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