TERMINATOR: DARK FATE - November 1st - Headed For $100+ Million Loss

[AndyDursin]

“Dark Fate” cost $185 million to produce. Variety reports the movie’s marketing and distribution budget was in the $80 million and $100 million range, which means the movie would have to gross in the $450 million range in order to turn a profit. For comparison, “Genisys” tapped out at $440 million worldwide in 2015 after opening in the same margin. Box office analysts tell Variety “Dark Fate” is heading to a final worldwide gross between $180 million and $200 million, which would result in a loss of $100 million or more.

The one saving grace behind “Terminator: Dark Fate” bombing at the box office is that it was financed by Paramount, Skydance, and Disney (via 20th Century Fox), so the film’s losses will be split among the studios and not piled solely onto Paramount. Should “Dark Fate” drop quickly at the box office, it could even approach losses at or above $120 million. Box office analysts tell Variety the film might not even make it past $70 million at the U.S. box office.

[Monterey Jack]

Considering the box office yawns that accompanied Genisys only FOUR YEARS AGO, you have to wonder why anyone would invest in a new Terminator movie. It's like a gambler left with nothing in his pockets but cab fare home, and betting it all knowing there's a one-in-a-million change of hitting the jackpot. As much as I've liked the Terminator sequels (yes, even Dark Fate), the series has never been a major blockbuster force since T2, and that had the double-whammy of featuring Arnie at the height of his box-office clout as well as the then-novelty of its ground-breaking CGI. Every sequel since has been so absurdly expensive to produce that there's zero chance of doing anything better than breaking even.

I don't get it.

[AndyDursin]

Yeah they COMPLETELY misread the high ceiling for this movie. I guess they really believed Cameron's name was going to help, but the irony is he ended up having numerous battles with the director and got pissed off!

[mkaroly]

Cameron is something of a has-been to me...his name does not carry the clout that it used to (as far as me saying, "Ooh...I gotta go see this!").

[Monterey Jack]

Speaking of gamblers going all-in on a franchise with limited appeal, I'm flabbergasted that Cameron thinks people want FIVE Avatar sequels...over a decade after the first one came out! Hey, I thought the first film was a big technical wow at the time, and sturdy (if obviously cliched) storytelling, but even the movie's most ardent fans aren't exactly champing at the bit for even one sequel at this point. It'd be like if we were no MCU, and we were just getting the first Iron Man sequel NOW.

[AndyDursin]

What a waste of time this was, especially if you're a fan of the series. It's the most straightforward remake of the original TERMINATOR out of any of the sequels -- pretending nothing existed since 2 -- but that's not the right way to appease whatever fans you DO have. At least things like SALVATION and GENISYS were both a lot more entertaining and offered a few twists on the formula.

The story was lifeless, played out with few surprises and offered little we hadn't seen already. I was ready for the whole "female empowerment" deal and the Mexican market pandering, but was stunned at how ORDINARY the script was considering Cameron's involvement and all the writers who allegedly concocted the story.

Linda Hamilton was frankly lame, and Arnold was the best part -- but he didn't show up until well over an hour into it. Big mistake there also.

Another HUGE blunder -- killing 12 year old John Connor in the opening scene. Not since Newt being offed at the start of ALIEN3 has a sequel so badly lost the good will of an audience. There was a way to not basically destroy the end of TERMINATOR 2, but they managed to not only NOT find it, but they did it in such a poorly thought out manner that they immediately started the entire movie and its premise off on exactly the WRONG note.

[AndyDursin]

Cameron is so full of his own BS. This movie bombed because they took the entire narrative of T2 and blew it up in minutes, reconfiguring it for the Latino market in a sheerly transparent ethno-remake.