Weekend Box Office 4/29 - AVENGERS Romps

[AndyDursin]

RANK FILM DIST. SCREENS (CHG) FRI 3-DAY (-%) TOTAL WKD NO.

1 Avengers: Infinity War Dis 4,475 $106.7M $245.6M 1
2 A Quiet Place Par 4,101 $3.2M (-49%) $10.6M (-49%) $148.1M 4
3 I Feel Pretty STX 3,440 $2.5M (-59%) $8.2M (-49%) $29.6M 2
4 Rampage NL/WB 3,508 (-607) $1.7M (-66%) $7M (-65%) $77.8M 3
5 Black Panther Dis 1,650 (-280) $1.2M (+3%) $4.4M (-11%) $688M 11
6 Super Troopers 2 FSL 2,125 (+87) $1.1M
(-86%) $3.4M (-77%) $21.9M 2

7 Truth Or Dare Uni/Blumhouse 2,420 (-648) $1M (-60%) $3M (-58%) $35.1M 3
8 Blockers Uni 2,324 (-810) $900K (-58%) $2.9M (-57%) $53.1M 4
9 Ready Player One WB/VR 2,365 (-843) $648K (-67%) $2.5M (-66%) $130.8M 5
10 Traffik LG 1,046 $456k (-67%) $1.5M (-61%) $6.7M 2
11 Isle Of Dogs FSL 1,001 (-946) $370K (-60%) $1.4M (-60%) $27M 6

[Johnmgm]

I wonder when then inevitable downward trend of comic book movies will occur? This is not a dig at CB movies (although I am sick of them) but it will happen, just as Westerns, Musicals, and other genres have dominated the market for a given period declined or vanished.

On a side note, I suspect Star Wars (a genre in and of itself) is in decline. Each of the last two SW installments made less than 300 million than The Force Awakens. Granted, each made a mint, but 300 million is a huge difference and I’m sure has been studied in the boardrooms at Disney.

[AndyDursin]

I wonder when then inevitable downward trend of comic book movies will occur? This is not a dig at CB movies (although I am sick of them) but it will happen, just as Westerns, Musicals, and other genres have dominated the market for a given period declined or vanished.

It will happen eventually, and the problem for Hollywood is what are they going to have when that occurs -- and all the remade franchises and other "tentpoles" have worn themselves out? If you don't create original content, you are doomed to failure, and it's going to be a day of reckoning when that does happen, because they've done nothing but recycle tired old material here for many years running.

I'm sure they see the writing on the wall -- as in overall attendance declines -- and that these big genre blockbusters are providing short-term gains while not enhancing the long-term health of the cinematic experience.

On a side note, I suspect Star Wars (a genre in and of itself) is in decline. Each of the last two SW installments made less than 300 million than The Force Awakens. Granted, each made a mint, but 300 million is a huge difference and I’m sure has been studied in the boardrooms at Disney.

Absolutely right.

I've written this before, but I'm very interested in seeing what HAN SOLO does (more than actually seeing the film, which I'm not interested in much at all). This one comes just 6 months after LAST JEDI, which while pulling in $600 million, took a big drop after FORCE AWAKENS. Fan and overall viewer reaction was mixed/negative despite the box-office, and there's been very little time in the interim between these movies.

Put over-saturation together with a deflated fan base -- and this one is aimed right at irritated veteran Star Wars fans like me -- and I can see this one taking another big dive. Could it fail to hit $300 mil domestic? That would be a big drop off ROGUE ONE (the most direct comparison to this "Star Wars Story") and would probably fit given the drop between FORCE AWAKENS & LAST JEDI (the "new trilogy" installments).

The scattershot way they've made these films (release dates first, stories second, as evidenced by the parade of fired directors on most of these projects!) shows they're not going to be able to sustain a Marvel approach with Star Wars and release a movie a year -- and not suffer because of mediocre product, which is just what they're putting out.

[Johnmgm]

I own stock in Disney and have for some time. My concern is long-term. Currently, the film division is in four parts, two of which are Star Wars (Lucasfilm) and Marvel (the other two are Disney and Pixar). Right now Lucas and Marvel are the hottest thing going (and will be for ages from a merchandising standpoint), but I see both as having upcoming sell-by dates as far as movie going concerns (especially Lucasfilm). I hope Disney has a plan for what to do when those two concerns begin to fatigue. I’m also concerned with Disney’s upcoming version of Netflix, but that is another story.

[AndyDursin]

Disney's already seen toy sales drop for LAST JEDI, which you likely saw. Expect that to become more pronounced. I also think these films are more popular with older folks than kids too -- to them, IMO it's just one more movie franchise with special effects, as interchangeable as the next. What made it special are the films that came before it, which aren't the ones they are growing up with.

[Johnmgm]

I suspect the trend will go down when “geek chic” wanes or is less tolerated. “Girls say No to boys who say Avengers Assemble.”

Its tough to say with Star Wars. The Force Awakens was not an especially good movie—it certainly wasn’t original in any way—but it’s quality, or lack there of, didn’t effect the opening of The Last Jedi, which opened like gangbusters. Did Jedi’s box office wane due to its perceived quality or competition from Jumanji. Also, will Solo’s numbers be effected by Jedi’s realative merits, or will it sink of swim on its own?

[AndyDursin]

I doubt JUMANJI -- which everybody was dumping on before it opened -- had anything to do with THE LAST JEDI's drop.

Truthfully -- I know not one person outside the internet who liked THE LAST JEDI. I mean, admittedly, it's just the people I meet every day, but I can tell you between two cousins, my Fedex driver, my barber (and everyone in there at the time too), the guy who worked at the toy store I frequent, a handful of other friends, several of my wife's work acquaintances (who I met at the holiday party) -- none of them liked it at all. Some more to varying degrees than others, but I couldn't find one who actually, really, truly liked it. That kind of sampling plus the intense dislike from fanboys online speaks volumes.

Obviously Disney can throw crap on the screen with the brand name and expect it to open well -- but that kind of jig is going to be up soon with these films.

With THE LAST JEDI in particular, that movie was so badly bungled, it ended with most of its plot strands resolved! I mean, who's out there waiting breathlessly for the 3rd part of a trilogy that basically resolved everything in #2....just incredibly bad writing. Still will make money "just because its STAR WARS" but that will only work for so long IMO.

[Johnmgm]

Don’t get me wrong, The Last Jedi was a bad movie. I just wonder if the drop off was due to badness—but Force Awakens badness didn’t cause it to drop off, non freshness, Jumanji (which I didn’t see, but seemed to be the holidays big family hit) or a combination of all of the above.

If you take Jumanji out of the mix—which I think took a big chunk of Jedi’s business; I think the main reason for Jedi’s drop is overall Star Wars fatigue. I realize discussing the financial success of something this profitable is kind of dumb..., but I suspect at the projected rate of one a year, Star Wars will have worn out it’s welcome in a decade or less.

BTW: I want to be clear, I don’t think Andy is dumb—the discussion we are having could be seen as pointless seeing as each of these SW films made over a billion dollars each! But, with more thought and care SW might have a brighter future for decades to come.

[AndyDursin]

I gotcha John. Remember it's possible for two movies to make a lot of money over a two or three month period and really have no impact on one another. I don't think Jumanji really was a factor at all, especially because nobody cared about Jumanji beforehand. It opened moderately well but grew each week because of word of mouth....it wasn't a case where Jumanji had this massive opening and siphoned off Star Wars audience.

The entire opposite was Last Jedi. It opened huge but fell off because it stank and that killed off the repeat business from fanboys over Jan and Feb. Had the film been better, it would not have suffered those kind of declines. It couldn't hold up it's end with the hardcore fans, which is why Disney needs to put out a better product to placate an irritated fanbase.