AndyDursin wrote:Life of Pi will probably win Best Score and maybe some technical awards but I don't see it having a huge chance in other categories, simply based on how things have gone recently.

Visual Effects is a near-lock..."Richard Parker" the tiger is the most miraculous F/X creation of the year. There was barely a moment I wasn't convinced I was looking at an actual animal. Then again, I thought Rise Of The Planet Of The Apes was a lock last year, and we know how that turned out.

I agree with most of the posts, but I just can’t dismiss Life of Pi as just picking up a few technical awards. I think there’s a bit more to the movie than that, and I believe the Academy voters may recognize that.

I also agree that Daniel Day Lewis is a pretty solid lock to pick up Best Actor for Lincoln. Beyond that, the movie will likely pick up some nods for Costuming, etc. The biggest surprise for me there is that Lewis’ makeup team was not nominated as well. I had thought we would see a replay of The Iron Lady from last year, with the lead actor and their team both getting the nod at the same time.

The other thing is that how Argo does at the DGA awards will not necessarily lead to it winning anything at the Academy, because there are two very different groups voting. With the Academy, a small number of feature director members selected five fellow directors, none of whom was Ben Affleck. With the DGA, the full membership voted, including assistant directors, production managers, television directors, etc. It’s a big difference. Occasionally, this leads to a divergence as happened with 1995, when Ron Howard won the DGA award for Apollo 13 but wasn’t even nominated by the Academy, which gave a sweep to Mel Gibson for Braveheart. It is possible that the DGA membership may vote Affleck this honor, but that the general Academy membership (which is older and more exclusive than most DGA crewpeople) will not give him Best Picture. The strange thing is that Argo was not nominated in many categories, so at the Academy, the movie faces a scenario where it will either win a couple of lower end technical nods or it may win the biggest prize of the night.

I agree that Silver Linings Playbook, a movie I very much enjoyed for its performances, could benefit from the usual Weinstein marketing push. I’m certain it will win two major acting awards, and it might even pick up the Adapted Screenplay nod if it can get past Pi. But I’m not convinced that it will pick up Best Director or Best Picture unless the voters are completely in the Weinsteins’ spell or are feeling sentimental. Could happen. We’ve seen it before with movies like Out of Africa and The Last Emperor. But I don’t think it has the same chance that Argo does.

Lincoln is one of those movies where I don’t think the Academy or the public LOVED it. I think they respect the movie, and they find it to be a noble endeavor. But everyone I’ve talked to, inside and outside the business, says the same thing: it’s too long, and there seems to be a halo over the performances of Daniel Day Lewis and Sally Field. The Lewis performance is a marvel, particularly in that makeup/hair creation – and you really do get the feeling of spending a couple of hours in Lincoln’s presence. But there’s always the sense that you’re watching a GREAT PERFORMANCE at the same time. Personally, my favorite performance in the movie was done by James Spader – and it was in his scenes and Tommy Lee Jones’ work that the movie found its center. I don’t expect Jones to win an Oscar for that, and Spader wasn’t even nominated, unfortunately.

I strongly doubt you will see Haneke or Zeitlin win a Directing Oscar. I do think Haneke will pick up Screenplay, and Amour is a lock to take Best Foreign Film. Zeitlin should be pleased to even have these nominations, but Beasts will be an also-ran this year.

So that leaves you three possible candidates in the Directing category. I don’t think they’ll give it to Russell unless SLP sweeps several major categories. That could happen, as Andy points out. But I don’t think this is the same situation as The Artist or No Country for Old Men. SLP is a movie about performances, not about directing and storytelling by a director. The last time such a choice happened at the Academy, Jack Nicholson and Helen Hunt won for their acting in As Good As It Gets, but Titanic swept the big prizes. It’s possible the Academy voters will feel more traditional and will give the nod to Lincoln, but I don’t see it winning there. Andy is correct that they’ll give the nod to Daniel Day Lewis, the costumes and a few other technical nods. That leaves Ang Lee for Life of Pi. Regardless of my own affection for that movie, it does seem to be the more likely candidate. And it is quite possible that Pi could pick up an Oscar for Ang Lee but not get Best Picture, which would mirror what happened in 2005 with Brokeback Mountain and Crash. I also have noticed that everyone I’ve talked to about SLP has enjoyed the movie very much, and the discussion about it is always about the fun performances. At the same time, everyone I’ve talked to about Pi who has actually seen it came away both moved and stunned. People who normally don’t talk up 3D were telling me that it HAD to be seen in a theater in 3D and that I needed to do so ASAP. This wasn’t along the lines of Avatar, where people were marveling at the 3D and the technical stuff – it was more of an emotional reaction. Once I saw the movie, I understood where they were coming from.

I totally agree with the use of the Goldman axiom. It’s appropriate in light of the complete divergence between the nominations made by the Academy and the DGA. (And again, this speaks to the different memberships voting for each set of awards.) This is the kind of thing that makes the awards season a lot more interesting for me this year. I’m actually looking forward to seeing how this all turns out. The last few years it’s felt perfunctory to me. This year, I actually enjoyed several of the movies in play. (There’s another side to this – an Academy voter told me a couple of weeks ago that he always finds this time agonizing – because you see a bunch of good movies and have to decide which one should get a nod, when they are all good pieces of work…)

DavidBanner wrote:Lincoln is one of those movies where I don’t think the Academy or the public LOVED it. I think they respect the movie, and they find it to be a noble endeavor. But everyone I’ve talked to, inside and outside the business, says the same thing: it’s too long, and there seems to be a halo over the performances of Daniel Day Lewis and Sally Field. The Lewis performance is a marvel, particularly in that makeup/hair creation – and you really do get the feeling of spending a couple of hours in Lincoln’s presence. But there’s always the sense that you’re watching a GREAT PERFORMANCE at the same time. Personally, my favorite performance in the movie was done by James Spader – and it was in his scenes and Tommy Lee Jones’ work that the movie found its center. I don’t expect Jones to win an Oscar for that, and Spader wasn’t even nominated, unfortunately.

While I am not advocating for LINCOLN to win best picture or best director awards, I don't understand the "complaint" that it was too long from some...it honestly didn't seem that long to me. There were times where I wanted to leap into the picture and tell Sally Field to tone it down, that this is not the Mary Todd Lincoln story...lol...she reminded me of the aging actress who is giving the performance everything she has for that last reach at an Academy Award. Definitely didn't like her performance in that one...felt like she was trying to steal thunder from DDL. I think with Sally Field that one is watching a performance (a bad one at that), whereas with DDL you are watching a historical figure come to life and breathe on the screen. I doubt Spielberg will ever win another AA for anything...he is part of the old guard now. I do hope Williams wins for best score, but that's highly unlikely.

I think Spielberg could well win another Oscar at any point within the next twenty years. I don't see him retiring, and these things always depend on the movies he chooses to make. If he makes a series of Indiana Jones/Crystal Skull movies, then no, not much chance of an Oscar. But he always mixes in these prestige movies now. Just depends on if he gets into the right material.

The issue with Lincoln's length could have been addressed if they had abbreviated or eliminated the material about Robert. The movie wasn't about his son. It was about the passage of the 13th Amendment. The one scene with the legs in the wheelbarrow was great, but I saw no other need for Robert to be in the movie.

Well, Affleck won the DGA last night, which I have to admit was not a major surprise. The question is-does this really make ARGO the front runner for Best Picture? Up until last night I would have said yes, and here is why: actual Oscar voting has not started yet. A lot of people might say, "Well, this cinches it for ARGO-it is winning everything in sight, especially since Affleck did not get a nomination by the Academy for Director."

Not necessarily-remember 1995 and APOLLO 13 vs. BRAVEHEART? Ron Howard's film won the lion's share of the major awards, including the DGA; Gibson's film had won very little except the Golden Globe and its win for Picture was a surprise to many (it still surprises me today). Even though Howard was not nominated for Director the money gave his film the edge in the race, but BRAVEHEART won. And again, since voting has not officially begun yet, there might be a few people who might feel that what Affleck has won should be enough-not saying that is the right way of thinking, but some Academy members might think that way

I think David Banner might have a point-LINCOLN and ZERO DARK THIRTY might be either too serious or controversial to win, but LIFE OF PI just might sneak in and win there, and I would not count out SILVER LININGS PLAYBOOK, which despite not having a nod to Russell is also a feel-good movie, and the Academy does like those, too.

Right now I see a very close 3-way race between ARGO, SILVER LININGS PLAYBOOK and LIFE OF PI. I honestly have no idea if any one of them have a true edge, but if DeNiro OR Arkin wins, I think we will have a pretty good idea on Oscar night.

Jedbu, I think we're probably saying the same things in somewhat different ways.

It's quite possible that Argo will get enough of the general votes of the Academy members to win Best Picture. It's also possible that Silver Linings Playbook could benefit from the Weinstein Maneuver and suddenly sweep all the major categories. Or both could cancel each other out and leave the door open for Life of Pi to win the prize. Certainly, the Best Director Oscar will be an interesting category to watch.

It feels to me that this will be a replay of both 1995 and 1997. 1995 for the exact Apollo 13/Braveheart dynamic we've both discussed. 1997 for the great performances and appropriate acting nods given to As Good As It Gets while the bigger prizes went elsewhere.

Ben Affleck acknowledged last night that Argo's armful of awards may be just about full now, while Kathleen Kennedy acknowledged that Lincoln does not seem destined to win anything bigger than the expected nod to Daniel Day Lewis.

Great conversation guys!

Personally, I just don't see a reasonable path for LIFE OF PI to "sneak in" and win Best Picture at this stage of the game. It hasn't won anything major over the last month to indicate that it will, it also opened back in November and while it did well, I think its momentum has come and gone. For it to actually win Best Picture when it's won so little (comparatively speaking) from other award ceremonies would fly in the face of Oscar history -- with the Academy often reflecting what's won at the Golden Globes, DGA, etc.

LINCOLN -- like we've said, Day Lewis is locked in. Beyond that, this is going to be one of those movies honored with nominations and IMO it's not going to get a lot of wins...unless they honor Spielberg with another 'lifetime achievement' type of deal for Best Director simply because Affleck's not nominated.

ZERO DARK THIRTY -- This has no chance of winning any major prizes in my mind right now. I think it's too controversial and it's lost momentum on top of it (there have been some good articles written about it over the last couple of weeks). Everyone was talking about it before it opened nationally -- now nobody is, and it's cooled off at the box-office too. Bigelow also won 2 years ago. That too plays a factor.

For me it's simple: it all comes down to ARGO or SILVER LININGS PLAYBOOK for Best Picture.

ARGO has all the momentum -- ALL of it -- from award ceremonies that often reflect Oscar winners.

SILVER LININGS has the box-office momentum (now in national release and people are talking about it), so it's "current" in a way the other films aren't, plus it has the Weinstein factor. Still I have to think it's going to end up winning for Jennifer Lawrence and DeNiro and probably just fall short of BP because ARGO has won everything over the last few weeks.

At this point, I just can't see how it's not going to be ARGO. The film seems to have gotten a "second wind" in terms of people buzzing about it, plus I think people like Affleck personally. He may not have gotten a Best Director nomination (and shame on them really) but he's a likeable guy and a capable director on top of it. He's done his own campaigning too on talk shows and everything else, and IMO that helps the film as a whole. But most importantly: it's done a clean sweep of all the major other pre-Oscar awards. Movies that get those kind of honors almost never lose.

So I'll be surprised if it's not ARGO unless SLP sneaks in at the last minute in an upset.

Beyond that, I hope the show is watchable -- certainly it cannot be worse or as boring as the last few years with rehashed Billy Crystal or the hideous Anne Hathaway/James Franco disaster. Seth Macfarlane can be quite hilarious at times (I don't know about improvisational skills however), especially if he checks his ego at the door (good luck with that of course). I will say this -- he at least has a real love of great film music based on his twitter comments (he mentioned Bill Conti's NORTH AND SOUTH score the other night) so hopefully he can do some kind of musical tribute to a time when we actually had GREAT film music at the movies!

Andy, you're probably right that Life of Pi's chances of getting Best Picture are not that high. And Argo certainly has won some awards. Conventional wisdom would say that Affleck will be holding a BP trophy at the end of the month while presenters make the same comments we heard in 1990 about "Driving Miss Daisy" - look at the movie that "directed itself" since it didn't get nominated for that but won BP anyway.

I still wouldn't line the DGA up with the Academy this year. I believe the tallies will show that a large number of ADs and UPMs voted this time around since they were sent screeners and since the evoting was quite easy for everyone. The Academy voters are a smaller group, and a more exclusive one. They may not go the same way for BP, particularly given that the director was not nominated. Argo further has an interesting scenario in that it was not nominated for the slew of awards you'd expect - so it will either win the big prize or go away with shockingly little. And I say that as someone who really liked the movie.

You're also totally right that Life of Pi didn't pick up the big one for the Golden Globes. But it has been picking up other awards, including for Ang Lee. I have a feeling that given the list of nominees for the Best Director Oscar, you may well see Ang Lee settling for his second Best Director nod while his movie doesn't get the biggest prize. Given that he's been here before, with Brokeback Mountain, I don't think the blow will hurt that much... I agree they could give the award to Spielberg as a traditional nod to Lincoln, but I just don't get the feeling that people really liked the movie that much. Kathleen Kennedy acknowledged this last night. But they will get the nod for Lewis and probably for Costumes and that sort of thing.

Silver Linings Playbook is a really good movie, and one I'm glad I saw. I don't see how the performance of Lawrence won't win. I'm wondering now whether Jones will be able to repeat his SAG win, or if De Niro will get it instead. SAG and the Oscars don't completely line up either...

I think you're right about Argo's momentum and about Silver Linings being able to jump in at the last second. But we should always keep in mind what happens when two candidates cancel each other out. (For example 1991, when Geena Davis and Susan Sarandon split the vote for the same movie, and 1981 when Chariots of Fire surprised everyone with a series of wins, starting with the Screenplay Award. That was the night that one of the winners made the great comment "The British are Coming..." and he was right...)

If you want to go inside the mind of a Director filling out his ballot, check out this revealing -- if not somewhat disturbing for the guy's total ignorance on several issues -- article from the Hollywood Reporter.

First of all, he didn't understand Jennifer Lawrence was making a JOKE on SATURDAY NIGHT LIVE? It's a COMEDY show, she was doing a monologue. And you're going to disqualify her for Best Actress over it? Seriously?

And people were mad at Tommy Lee Jones for scowling over a lame comedy bit at the Golden Globes? Seriously? Wow again!

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/race/o ... lot-422546

-Best Score
"“John Williams has enough f---ing Oscars, and I really feel that the score was a weak part of Lincoln and just self-plagiarism for Williams.”

-Best Actess
"Jennifer Lawrence I was on the fence about, but she lost me with that Saturday Night Live bit; I thought it was mean-spirited and shows a lack of maturity on her part."

-Best Supporting Actress
"I rule out Christoph Waltz because this is a fake nomination — he’s a co-lead with Jamie Foxx, and it’s unfair for the others to compete with that. Also, much of his performance is just like in Inglourious Basterds. Robert De Niro was just Robert De Niro; yes, he had one crying scene, but crying is not enough. Alan Arkin in Argo? I’m shocked he’s even nominated. Tommy Lee Jones has been such a bitter guy -- all that scowling at the Golden Globes? I’m telling you, people don’t like the guy. So I turn to Philip Seymour Hoffman, who was sublime in The Master."

-Best Original Script
"“Amour is immediately disqualified -- it’s just a woman dying, and there’s no real story, and it made me feel like ****. There’s only so much diaper-changing that I can tolerate. Django? If Tarantino had never made a film and this was his first screenplay, I might consider voting for him, but he’s made the same movie eight times. Moonrise Kingdom? It’s a personal thing, but I don’t like this guy’s movies. Flight offers a look at addiction unlike any we’ve seen. But Mark Boal’s Zero Dark Thirty script is even more amazing, with very good moments and great tension. Also, this whole torture thing is nonsense. Knowing that it’s not gonna win best picture, part of me just wants to try to push through an award for it as an ‘I’m sorry.’”

-Best Foreign Film
"I really wonder if these people are going to vote for Amour, because they’re really looking at themselves and they’ve gotta be saying, 'This is what’s in my future? This is f---ing depressing.' It’s depressing for people who are dying and for people who have to take care of people who are dying. It’s like, who needs that ****? I personally didn’t care for it."

-Best Picture
"This is a preferential system. I’m putting Amour at No. 9 because I’m just pissed off at that film. Beasts of the Southern Wild is a movie that I just didn’t understand, so that’s my No. 8. Les Miserables goes in seventh place -- it’s not just the most disappointing film of the year but the most disappointing film in many years. Above that I’m putting Silver Linings Playbook, which is just a “blah” film. Django Unchained will go into my fifth slot -- it’s a fun movie, but it’s basically just Quentin Tarantino masturbating for almost three hours. Next up is Life of Pi because of how unique it is and for holding my attention up until its irritating ending. Argo is gonna go in third place, but I don’t want it to win because I don’t think it deserves to win and am annoyed that it is on track to win for the wrong reasons. Actually, come to think of it, do we have to put a film in every slot? Because what I want is for my best picture choice to have the best possible shot, so why even give any support to the others? [He has his assistant call the Oscar voting helpline, finds out that voters can leave slots blank and promptly removes all of the aforementioned selections.] I’m basically OK with one of two films winning. Lincoln is going in my second slot; it’s a bore, but it’s Spielberg, it’s well-meaning, and it’s important. Zero Dark Thirty is my No 1.”

This proves how arbitrary and subjective Oscar voting can be, and how much differently filmmakers and audiences perceive movies.

His comments about John Williams certainly don't bespeak a musical ear. I'm so tired of this "Williams' scores all sound the same" attitude (which is ludicrous in the age of Hans Zimmer clones).

This sounds exactly like Star Wars, doesn't it...

Moron....

This proves how arbitrary and subjective Oscar voting can be, and how much differently filmmakers and audiences perceive movies.

I didn't post it above (you can read the whole article in that Hollywood Reporter link), but he was also disturbed by LIFE OF PI's "religious garbage" in the film's ending too.

It's a fascinating set of comments for both good and bad reasons -- his ignorance on some things is just shocking for a filmmaker who works in the industry. (But is it surprising given how much garbage that they produce on a regular basis? lol).

Anyone want to guess who it is? Obviously an older director since he talks about using the internet despite his age.

It's clearly a guy who's trying to be a curmudgeon. His logic on most of his picks is totally ridiculous. He makes several personal insults and attacks with his comments, most of which attempt to mimic the snarkier reviews I used to read in the LA WEEKLY, back in the 80s when it was still relevant.

He's clearly older because he obsesses about the details of Amour, for which he expresses contempt.

Notice in almost all of his picks, he deliberately does things that you know nobody else will do. He ignores Argo completely, he throws a "pity nod" to Lincoln and generally engages in "I just gotta be me" behavior throughout. The only part of it that I agreed with was his note about Lincoln's makeup. How that one didn't get nominated is beyond me.

My predictions as of now:

Best Picture - Argo or Silver Linings Playbook, depending on which one gets more enthusiasm from the voters. Argo may get it purely out of people's enjoyment of Ben Affleck's work and their disbelief that the directors snubbed him.

Best Director - Ang Lee, or David O. Russell, if Silver Linings Playbook pulls off a sweep.

Best Actor - Daniel Day Lewis, in a walk. (I enjoyed that voter trying to talk up Joaquin Phoenix. Yeah. Not going to happen.)

Best Actress - Jennifer Lawrence. (I've heard two people throwing the nod to Emmanuel Riva, whose performance is terrific. But I don't know how many Academy voters actually will go there. The more likely scenario is to give it to Lawrence for a surprisingly strong showing.)

Best Supporting Actor - Tommy Lee Jones or Robert de Niro. Depends on which one gets more nods for a long career, with most of the highlights having come in the 20th Century. This is one of the categories where you have several really strong contenders and it's a car crash of good choices. I know one Academy member who has trouble voting in categories like this, because you have to pick one out of a group that were all good.

Best Supporting Actress - Anne Hathaway, in a walk.

Best Foreign Film - Amour, in a walk.

Best Original Screenplay - Amour

Best Adapted Screenplay - This is another car crash category. I'd say it's either Silver Linings Playbook or Life of Pi. Both have strong arguments to support them. Argo might pull it out if the other two split the votes.

Best Cinematography - Life of Pi

Best Score - Life of Pi

Best Song - Skyfall

Best Editing - Argo or Silver Linings Playbook (depends on whether Silver Linings sweeps the major awards.)

Best Animated Movie - Brave

Best Production Design - Lincoln

Best Wardrobe - Car crash! Everyone in this category did great work. I'll go with Lincoln.

Best Makeup - Les Miserables (Again, this was the one category the curmudgeon called right.)

Best Sound Mixing - Argo or Life of Pi

Best Sound Editing - Argo or Life of Pi

Best VFX - Life of Pi

AndyDursin wrote:Anyone want to guess who it is? Obviously an older director since he talks about using the internet despite his age.

1. James Cameron
2. Spike Lee
3. Francis Ford Coppola
4. Bryan Singer

Lol...

Lincoln was way too milky for me; I have that problem with almost everything Janusz Kaminski does.

Lol!!