Easter Weekend Box Office - Bat, Supes Crush Critics For Now

Talk about the latest movies and video releases here!
Post Reply
Message
Author
User avatar
AndyDursin
Posts: 34480
Joined: Tue Oct 05, 2004 8:45 pm
Location: RI

Easter Weekend Box Office - Bat, Supes Crush Critics For Now

#1 Post by AndyDursin »

Geeks and nerds showing bad reviews ain't gonna keep them down. Let's hope their tastes don't keep this afloat for weeks to come if it truly IS poor.

This opening is very good but very expected. Key is what happens next week and so on...
1).Batman v Superman (WB), 4,242 theaters/ $80.5M Fri.* / 3-day cume: $169.5M/ Wk 1
*includes $27.7M previews

2). Zootopia (DIS), 3,670 theaters (-289)/ $9.8 Fri. (+2%)/ 3-day cume: $23.9M (-36%)/Total Cume: $241.3M/Wk 4

3).My Big Fat Greek Wedding 2 (UNI), 3,133 theaters/ $7.7M Fri.+ / 3-day cume: $19.1M / Wk 1
+includes $1.02M Thursday previews

4).Allegiant (LG), 3,740 theaters/ $3.9M Fri. (-67%)/ 3-day cume: $9.8M (-66%)/Total cume: $46.9M Wk 2

5).Miracles From Heaven (SONY), 3,047 theaters/ $3.3M Fri.(-20%) / 3-day cume: $9.3M (-37%)/Total Cume: $34M Wk 2

6).10 Cloverfield Lane (PAR), 2,802 theaters (-625)/ $2.1M Fri. (-42%) / 3-day cume: $6M (-52%)/Total cume: $56M / Wk 3

7). Deadpool (FOX), 2,336 theaters (-588) / $1.66M Fri. (-26%) / 3-day cume: $4.7M (-41%) / Total Cume: $349.2M / Wk 6

8 ). London Has Fallen (FOC), 2,173 theaters (-838)/ $993k Fri. (-47%)/ 3-day cume: $2.8M (-59%)/Total Cume: $55.5M/ Wk 4

9) Hello, My Name Is Doris (RSA), 488 theaters (+360)/ $483K Fri. (+85%) / 3-day cume: $1.5m (+48%)/Total Cume:$3M/ Wk 3

10). Risen (SONY), 634 theaters (-571)/ $349K Fri. (+20%) / 3-day cume: $947K (-17%) /Total Cume: $36M /Wk 6

11) Eye in the Sky (BLST), 123 theaters (+88)/ $288K Fri. (+160%) / 3-day cume: $924K (+119%)/Total Cume: $1.6M/ Wk 3

User avatar
AndyDursin
Posts: 34480
Joined: Tue Oct 05, 2004 8:45 pm
Location: RI

Re: Easter Weekend Box Office - Bat, Supes Crush Critics For

#2 Post by AndyDursin »

Downward trending begins...
B CinemaScore grade for #BatmanvSuperman meaning paying auds are so-so w/ this film. Big drop today, wknd may reach $160M+.
@giteshpandaya

DavidBanner

Re: Easter Weekend Box Office - Bat, Supes Crush Critics For

#3 Post by DavidBanner »

Keeping things in perspective, it does look like BS will have a good opening weekend at the box office. But they need far more than that.
They're admitting they spent 250 million on the movie, which means they need at least 750 million just to break even.
A Rotten Tomato critical score of 30 percent will not help them get there. I have noticed that the crowd reaction on RT to it is currently 73 percent, but I really have to wonder if there are some fans of the movie desperately trying to inflate that score.

I expect they'll have drops through this weekend but will still come out with a strong overall number, due to the presales and the opening day. Next weekend, I strongly suspect the box office will fall away very quickly. And that's where the real problem hits. WB frantically needs this movie to do at least the numbers that the Avengers movies have done. If it doesn't make a billion dollars, they don't really have a franchise builder. And if, like ASM2, it can't even get to break-even in the cinema, they have a more serious problem.


The last few of these I've kept an eye on have been:

Avengers: Age of Ultron - They spent 250 million, they brought in nearly 1.5 billion. Movie had some problems, but it still made plenty of money and the Marvel brand continues to be quite strong.

Amazing Spider Man 2 - They spent 250+ million, but the global box office only got to nearly 710 billion, meaning that they were at least 50 million still in the red. I'd guess they made that up in home video sales over the last three years and likely went a little past that, but not in a big way. Understandably, Sony has cancelled their doomed additional sequels and other Marvel projects and the property has now reverted to Disney, where Spiderman will get his second restart in 10 years (and his third in 15 years!) when he pops up in the Captain America movie this year. It is important to remember that Sony had already spent millions trying to develop those additional ASM sequels and Sinister Six, so their surrender here indicates that the failure of ASM2 stung a lot more than they likely have admitted publicly. (I've never looked at this stuff, but I have to wonder if the leaked emails from 2014 included a lot of hand-wringing over that franchise collapse)

Star Trek Into Darkness - They spent over 200 million (only admitting to 185-190 publicly), but the global box office didn't even get them to 500 million, let alone the 600 million that they needed to break even. Global receipts are estimated somewhere around 467 million, meaning that they needed to earn another 140 million in home video sales/rentals - a tall order for any single movie. (The Star Wars Complete Saga Blu-ray sales got there, I believe, but that was in a pack selling an entire franchise of 6 movies. For a single movie, that's really asking a lot.) Paramount was noted for trying various underhanded home video sales ploys to goose the sales higher - different exclusives at different vendors, effectively requiring the movie's fans to make multiple purchases. When that didn't provide enough income, Paramount quickly released their "Compendium" release as a 2-pack with the earlier Abrams' attempt. Given the large number of Star Trek fans worldwide, it is possible that after nearly 3 years of this, they may have broken even by now. Publicly, Paramount declared the movie a hit and announced it as the greatest box office success of all the Star Trek movies. Simultaneously, they agreed to do a third movie but demanded a budget cut of 50 million dollars - so that if the upcoming film does the same business as STID, they can at least break even quickly. The frantic reshoots currently going on for the third movie are not a hopeful sign. (CBS at the same time seems to want to put a little money into a web series reboot for the franchise, but it is unclear what they're really thinking. They've already made one strong choice with a consultant [Nick Meyer] and one WTF choice with another [Rod Roddenberry???] so what they do here is anyone's guess. We'll know more about the webisodes in another 6 months, but I'm expecting that they'll build the basic production design from the current movies as that's a heck of a lot cheaper than starting from scratch.)

User avatar
AndyDursin
Posts: 34480
Joined: Tue Oct 05, 2004 8:45 pm
Location: RI

Re: Easter Weekend Box Office - Bat, Supes Crush Critics For

#4 Post by AndyDursin »

Understandably, Sony has cancelled their doomed additional sequels and other Marvel projects and the property has now reverted to Disney,
Not exactly, believe it or not. Sony still controls Spidey's big screen rights. Their unusual new "arrangement" with Marvel means Marvel is part of the casting/"rehabbing" of the character and film franchise and, in return, can use Spider-Man in crossover films like Cap and Avengers. But Sony is still in full control --
Sony will continue to distribute, finance, own and have final creative control of the Spider-Man pics.

They’ll work with Marvel, owned by Disney, to weave Spider-Man’s character into Marvel’s upcoming superhero films, which includes the popular franchise “The Avengers.”
http://variety.com/2015/film/news/spide ... 201429508/

It's going to take a lot more than ASM2 disappointing for Sony to ever relinquish the Spider-Man rights...in fact I can't ever see Marvel gaining full control of them unless they want to pay Sony a TON of money...and whatever the price is, even Disney's unwilling to go there right now.
I have noticed that the crowd reaction on RT to it is currently 73 percent, but I really have to wonder if there are some fans of the movie desperately trying to inflate that score.
Bingo! You know that's the case.
WB frantically needs this movie to do at least the numbers that the Avengers movies have done. If it doesn't make a billion dollars, they don't really have a franchise builder. And if, like ASM2, it can't even get to break-even in the cinema, they have a more serious problem.
Yeah, agreed, and not only that, but they'll have to figure it out soon -- especially in terms of Snyder's involvement and this JUSTICE LEAGUE film going ahead in a matter of days/weeks. Do they really want this guy guiding the entire ship? Giving Nolan carte blanche is one thing, but Snyder isn't Nolan, as we're now (obviously) seeing.

DavidBanner

Re: Easter Weekend Box Office - Bat, Supes Crush Critics For

#5 Post by DavidBanner »

I stand corrected. Sony still retains their rights. You're absolutely right that a buyout before Sony's contract expires would mean that Marvel/Disney would need to pay a big chunk of change to them. I have a feeling that what we'll see here is some co-production ideas that will eventually end when Sony's contract does expire - unless they have some ability to renew or anything like that. If they don't, then Disney just waits them out for a few years, as they are doing with Fox and Star Wars when it comes to further home video releases. By 2020 or 2022, say, the character reverts back anyway and they don't need to spend additional coin until then.

At the same time, it was publicized that Andrew Garfield is out, and that the plans for additional movies were essentially scrapped. I realize that Sony won't officially say that - it would be too embarrassing, frankly. But the reality is that Sony is doing nothing with the various projects they'd announced and spent millions on before ASM2 failed. No, they haven't officially said that Sinister Six is gone - they've just taken it off the release schedule and said it's "indefinitely delayed". In non-corporate speak, that translates to "It's not happening, but we're not about to admit it in public." (See also the Jedi Mind Trick...)

If anything, it's just head-spinning to me to see these guys try to reboot Spider-Man no less than three times in 15 years. That's frankly ridiculous. They had a good idea going with Sam Raimi and Tobey Maguire - albeit with the third movie really disappointing. But there's no reason to believe those guys couldn't have pulled their heads out of their posteriors and come up with something better after 2007. As you've noted, the rush into production of a totally new Spider-Man for 2012 was certainly not to protect the integrity of the character. It was to keep Sony's claim to the character alive, even if they had no idea what they wanted to do with him. (I must allow that Christopher Nolan's Dark Knight Trilogy began less than a decade after the humiliatingly awful Batman & Robin, but I qualify that by noting that with the Batman movies, they'd already swapped out two Batmans, watched the quality plummet and had effectively killed their franchise by 1997 anyway...)


Getting back to BS, I really have to wonder if Warner Bros will really allow Snyder to guide an entire franchise - particularly if the box office plummets as fast as seems inevitable. If it inexplicably stays aloft for a month, then I'll have to admit that they've tapped into something in the audience. And if they really make a billion dollars with this movie, then yes, Snyder will be the architect for a bunch of new DC movies within Warner Bros whether anyone likes his work or not. But I don't think that's what's going to happen. The signs point to the movie dropping very quickly, leading to a major disappointment, both financially and otherwise for Warner Bros. Keep in mind that there are other wings of Warner Bros that are eagerly waiting to see what happens with this movie - including HBO. If the movie is a huge triumph, then other sectors of the company can relax a little - it gives them some breathing room. And if they have that plus two or three of their other movies (Conjuring 2) doing well over the year, then this year will be considered a major bounce back for them. If the movie does what it looks like it's going to do (namely free-fall by next weekend), all sectors of Time Warner could be in for major cutbacks. We are already seeing this with HBO and it may accelerate.


Looking ahead, I have a feeling that the Captain America movie will do extremely well, as it's essentially an Avengers movie under a different title, and I have a feeling that the X-Men movie will likely not do all that well. I could be wrong on both counts.

User avatar
AndyDursin
Posts: 34480
Joined: Tue Oct 05, 2004 8:45 pm
Location: RI

Re: Easter Weekend Box Office - Bat, Supes Crush Critics For

#6 Post by AndyDursin »

. I have a feeling that what we'll see here is some co-production ideas that will eventually end when Sony's contract does expire - unless they have some ability to renew or anything like that.
My understanding is these deals are contingent on the studio in question making movies with the character. Once they get a series going, they don't have an expiration date provided they keep making movies, which is why the odds of Disney ever getting Spider-Man back are so unlikely. All Sony needs to do is make a cheap low-budget movie with Spidey and they retain the rights until they decide they don't want to make any more movies. It's the same for Fox with the X-Men and Fantastic Four.

Of course, as much as ASM2 sucked as a film, it still made a huge amount of money that for (virtually) any other film would have been a massive success...so it makes perfect sense for Sony to give it another go, even with a new cast. The Raimi films were genuine blockbusters here and internationally, so much so that I'm surprised they didn't try and go with that 4th movie they abandoned at the last minute (and in hindsight, 3 looks even better as a film after the ASM pictures. It's not on the level of 1 and 2 but I always found it to be unfairly dumped on).

It's a different situation with the likes of Daredevil, which Regency/Fox let lapse, and the Hulk, which Universal tried twice before deciding to hang it up and let Disney have him back. That second film, THE INCREDIBLE HULK, I believe was made with Marvel in the same way this new Spider-Man is being made with both Sony and Marvel involved. Universal still had final say on that 2nd Hulk movie and control over the project but I believe brought Marvel in to a much larger extent than the film where Ang Lee went way, way off the reservation!

This is all a byproduct of when Marvel sold the rights away to these characters a long, long time ago. Disney is having to live with those conditions even today, though there are only a few characters left they don't have (I like this graphic a lot lol):

Image
At the same time, it was publicized that Andrew Garfield is out, and that the plans for additional movies were essentially scrapped. I realize that Sony won't officially say that - it would be too embarrassing, frankly. But the reality is that Sony is doing nothing with the various projects they'd announced and spent millions on before ASM2 failed. No, they haven't officially said that Sinister Six is gone - they've just taken it off the release schedule and said it's "indefinitely delayed". In non-corporate speak, that translates to "It's not happening, but we're not about to admit it in public." (See also the Jedi Mind Trick...)
Sure, but haven't they basically admitted as much by bringing in Marvel and starting over -- and NOT making ASM3 and Sinister Six? I think the Venom movie is/was still on or is being reconfigured. At least they're not making an origin movie this time, and the kid they cast is a teenager.

I thought this Sally Field interview on Howard Stern about ASM was pretty telling:

http://www.cinemablend.com/new/Why-Sall ... 18517.html

DavidBanner

Re: Easter Weekend Box Office - Bat, Supes Crush Critics For

#7 Post by DavidBanner »

That's a fun chart.
But I have questions about the tabulation at the bottom. They're only counting domestic grosses, and most movies today really count on the worldwide stuff.
And I've always had questions about exactly how much revenue comes in from the home video side. With many films today that are more modestly budgeted, they actually make their money at home, with the theatrical release being a nice starter before the real cash flow starts on DVD, Blu-ray and On-Demand or Streaming. That being said, a huge budgeted movie absolutely must have a big haul at the box office in order to make its money back.


I agree that ASM2 made a lot of money, and that should have been a success. But not when they spent 250 million dollars and needed to make three times that just to get back to zero. I agree with you that Sony wants to hang on as long as it can and make some more money from the character. But I think they're fairly happy to let Marvel get in the driver's seat and just be partners in the matter. I think we agree Sony wouldn't have been in this position if they hadn't tossed Raimi and Maguire out - but such is life...

The Sally Field interview is about what I'd expect her to say. She had a thankless, one-level part and she did what she could with it as a favor to a friend of hers.

What scares me silly is that they are proposing Marisa Tomei to be Aunt May for the new reboot.
Let that sink in for a second. Marisa Tomei. To play Spider-Man's elderly Aunt May.
I believe that may be one of the signs of the Apocalypse...

User avatar
Monterey Jack
Posts: 9832
Joined: Mon Oct 18, 2004 12:14 am
Location: Walpole, MA

Re: Easter Weekend Box Office - Bat, Supes Crush Critics For

#8 Post by Monterey Jack »

DavidBanner wrote: What scares me silly is that they are proposing Marisa Tomei to be Aunt May for the new reboot.
Let that sink in for a second. Marisa Tomei. To play Spider-Man's elderly Aunt May.
I believe that may be one of the signs of the Apocalypse...
It makes me feel ANCIENT to see an actress still as gorgeous as Tomei being cast in a role intended for a grandmother type. :(

User avatar
AndyDursin
Posts: 34480
Joined: Tue Oct 05, 2004 8:45 pm
Location: RI

Re: Easter Weekend Box Office - Bat, Supes Crush Critics For

#9 Post by AndyDursin »

Methinks Aunt May is going to be sexed up for this. No way Marisa is playing the standard Granny type. :)

User avatar
Monterey Jack
Posts: 9832
Joined: Mon Oct 18, 2004 12:14 am
Location: Walpole, MA

Re: Easter Weekend Box Office - Bat, Supes Crush Critics For

#10 Post by Monterey Jack »

AndyDursin wrote:Methinks Aunt May is going to be sexed up for this. No way Marisa is playing the standard Granny type. :)
Marisa will be a GILF Aunt May. :lol:

Post Reply